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AI Earnings Predictions for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG)

Machine learning predictions based on historical earnings data and price patterns

Latest Prediction

SELL

1-Day Prediction

-0.46%

$12.26

0% positive prob.

5-Day Prediction

-4.06%

$11.82

0% positive prob.

20-Day Prediction

-2.70%

$11.99

0% positive prob.

Price at prediction: $12.32 Confidence: 100.0% Model AUC: 1.0000 Quarter: Q4 2025

Earnings Transcripts

SEC 8-K filings with transcript text

View All
2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K/A SELL

Feb 24, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.46%

$12.26

Act: +1.66%

5D

-4.06%

$11.82

Act: +0.65%

20D

-2.70%

$11.99

Price: $12.32 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001789940-26-000017

fwrg-202602200001789940TRUE00017899402026-02-202026-02-20

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K/A


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

February 20, 2026 Date of Report (date of earliest event reported)


First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) 001-40866 (Commission File Number) 82-4271369 (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

8725 Pendery Place, Suite 201, Bradenton, FL 34201

(Address of principal executive offices and zip code)

(941) 907-9800

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class Trading Symbol Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock, $0.01 par value

FWRG

The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. Emerging growth company    ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Explanatory Note On February 24, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Initial Form 8-K”) to report its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release announcing such results and a copy of the supplemental information presentation describing such results were attached to the Initial Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 (the “Original Press Release”) and Exhibit 99.3 (the “Original Supplemental Information Presentation”), respectively, and incorporated by reference therein. This amendment to the Initial Form 8-K is being filed solely to correct a typographical error in Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.3 to the Initial Form 8-K regarding the Company’s expectations for new restaurant openings for the fiscal year ending December 27, 2026. The language incorrectly reported that the Company’s outlook for new system-wide restaurants did not include three company-owned restaurant closures and should have stated that the outlook included those three company-owned restaurant closures. Except for the language regarding the Company’s expected new system-wide restaurants in the fiscal year ending December 27, 2026 in Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.3, all information set forth in the Initial Form 8-K and corresponding exhibits remains unchanged. Item 2.02 - Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued the Original Press Release announcing its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the press release, as corrected, is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure. The Company also posted the Original Supplemental Information Presentation to its website at investors.firstwatch.com. A copy of the supplemental information presentation, as corrected, is attached as Exhibit 99.3 and incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K/A, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.3, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. Item 9.01 - Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No. Description

99.1 Press Release of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. dated February 24, 2026, announcing financial results for fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025, a

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Feb 24, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.46%

$12.26

Act: +1.66%

5D

-4.06%

$11.82

Act: +0.65%

20D

-2.70%

$11.99

Price: $12.32 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001789940-26-000013

fwrg-202602200001789940FALSE00017899402026-02-202026-02-20

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

February 20, 2026 Date of Report (date of earliest event reported)


First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) 001-40866 (Commission File Number) 82-4271369 (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

8725 Pendery Place, Suite 201, Bradenton, FL 34201

(Address of principal executive offices and zip code)

(941) 907-9800

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class Trading Symbol Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock, $0.01 par value

FWRG

The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. Emerging growth company    ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 - Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. Item 5.02 Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 20, 2026, Mel Hope, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, informed the Company of his intent to retire from his position as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer after nearly eight years of distinguished service and leadership with the Company. The Company is conducting a process to identify his successor, looking at both internal and external candidates. It is expected that Mr. Hope will remain as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer until his successor is in place, and to serve as an advisor to the Company for a period of time thereafter to ensure a smooth transition. A copy of the press release dated February 24, 2026 announcing the retirement of Mr. Hope is attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure. The Company has also posted a supplemental information presentation to its website at investors.firstwatch.com, which is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, Exhibit 99.2 and Exhibit 99.3, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing. Item 9.01 - Financial Statements and Exhibits. (d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No. Description

99.1 Press Release of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. dated February 24, 2026, announcing financial results for fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025

99.2 Press Release of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. dated February 24, 2026

99.3 Supplemental Information Presentation for the fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025

104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized on this 24th day of February, 2026.

First Watch R

2025
Q4

Q4 2025 Earnings

8-K SELL

Jan 12, 2026 · 100% conf.

AI Prediction SELL

1D

-0.46%

$12.26

Act: +1.66%

5D

-4.06%

$11.82

Act: +0.65%

20D

-2.70%

$11.99

Price: $12.32 Prob +5D: 0% AUC: 1.000
0001789940-26-000003

fwrg-202601120001789940FALSE00017899402026-01-122026-01-12

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549


FORM 8-K


CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

January 12, 2026 Date of Report (date of earliest event reported)


First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)


Delaware (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) 001-40866 (Commission File Number) 82-4271369 (I.R.S. Employer Identification Number)

8725 Pendery Place, Suite 201, Bradenton, FL 34201

(Address of principal executive offices and zip code)

(941) 907-9800

(Registrant's telephone number, including area code)


Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:

☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Title of each class Trading Symbol Name of each exchange on which registered

Common stock, $0.01 par valueFWRGThe Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq Global Select Market)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. Emerging growth company    ☐ If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Item 2.02 - Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 12, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain preliminary operational results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. A copy of the release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.

The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this Current Report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing.

Item 9.01 - Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d) Exhibits.

Exhibit No.Exhibit Title or Description 99.1Press Release of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. dated January 12, 2026

104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document)

SIGNATURE

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (Registrant)

Date: January 12, 2026By: /s/ Mel Hope Name: Mel Hope Title: Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

About First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) Earnings

This page provides First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (FWRG) earnings call transcripts from SEC 8-K filings along with AI-powered predictions for post-earnings price movements. Our machine learning models analyze historical earnings data, pre-earnings price patterns, volume changes, and volatility to predict 1-day, 5-day, and 20-day returns after each earnings release.

Earnings transcripts are sourced directly from SEC EDGAR filings. Predictions are generated using gradient boosting models trained on FWRG's historical earnings reactions. All predicted returns are shown as percentages, and predicted prices are calculated from the closing price at the time of prediction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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